The last truly successful era for the Portland Trail Blazers was, of course, the Damian Lillard era. For 11 years, the All-Star point guard carried the team’s hopes - first as a sidekick, then as the main man - highlighted by a run to the Conference Finals in 2019. But after that peak, the team gradually slipped down the pecking order, culminating in their star’s departure in 2023.
For just over two seasons now, the franchise has been in full rebuild mode. There’s a chance they’ll take their first real step forward this season, as the Blazers currently sit ninth in the West and are well positioned for a play-in spot. Still, it’s clear this team isn’t built to compete with the conference’s elite.
Rebuilding takes time. But Portland has a major asset: Deni Avdija. The Israeli forward is having a breakout season, to the point where he already seems to have one hand on the Most Improved Player trophy. The only issue is that, while he’s playing at an extraordinary level, his timeline doesn’t seem to match up with the franchise’s plans.
Avdija Has Earned His Spot
When Portland acquired the Israeli forward - the 9th pick in the 2020 draft - from the Washington Wizards in the 2024 offseason, giving up a future first-round pick (which would become Carlton "Bub" Carrington) and former 6th Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon in the process, many questioned the logic for both teams. Especially for the Blazers, who had just re-signed Jerami Grant and were focused on developing Shaedon Sharpe (which is now happening).
There were concerns about a logjam, but the Israeli forward delivered a solid first season in Oregon, building on the progress he’d shown in his final year in Washington. Not a leader, but a good all-around basketball player—still a bit raw, but able to contribute as a starter. No one seemed ready for what came next.
This season, Deni Avdija is putting up eye-popping numbers: after averaging 16.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.9 assists, he’s now at 26.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6.9 assists! And that’s with just 5.4 more minutes per game, shooting percentages holding steady, and for the first time in his career, a positive net rating (0.6). He’s the clear favorite for MIP.
The immediate impact for his team: right now, Portland - coming off four straight losing seasons - is at .500 (22-22). Avdija has become the face of the franchise, carrying the team and often scoring over 30 points in a game, including a recent 41-point outburst against the Rockets. But is that enough for the Blazers to take the next step?
The Blazers Have the Pieces
Despite Avdija’s emergence, Portland ranks just 21st in offensive rating and 17th in defensive rating. In other words, they’re a middle-of-the-pack team - one player can’t do it all. Still, besides the Israeli forward, the aforementioned Shaedon Sharpe is also on the rise. While his leap isn’t as dramatic as his teammate’s, he’s now averaging over 20 points per game this season.
Overall, this team is loaded with talent. Last year’s draft pick, Donovan Clingan, is seen as the center of the future, which led the franchise to move on from DeAndre Ayton. Last season’s surprise, Toumani Camara, earned a spot on the All-Defensive Second Team. It’s a solid core of young talent (after all, Avdija is only 25), surrounded by veterans like Jerami Grant, Jrue Holiday, and of course Damian Lillard, who returned this summer, albeit minus an Achilles tendon.
But the Blazers face several issues, chief among them the timeline. In 2027, Holiday, Grant, and Lillard will all have player options, and if all three pick them up, it’ll cost nearly $90 million, even as they’re nearing the end of their careers. Their roles are already diminishing, partly due to injuries, and it’s worth asking if at least one should be moved on from.
Undoubtedly, yes. Most of the time, Tiago Splitter (whose impact deserves a discussion of its own) is starting a lineup of Sidy Cissoko (or Kris Murray) - Shaedon Sharpe - Deni Avdija - Toumani Camara - Donovan Clingan. No veterans in the starting five most nights, though Grant has occasionally joined in. It’s a young lineup, matching the franchise’s vision.
What’s Next?
But when you see a player like Deni Avdija becoming what he is now, it’s tempting to want to speed up the timeline. At the end of this season, he’ll have two years left on his contract, and in that time, the team needs to make enough progress to convince him to re-sign. The problem: contending for a title isn’t easy. It would mean breaking up a young, ambitious group to bring in a star - someone even better than Avdija? Or do you try to get the most out of the current young core and see how far they can go?
That would mean making Deni Avdija the centerpiece of the project. And that clearly wasn’t the original plan, since he wasn’t even on the roster when the rebuild began in 2023. The plan was Sharpe, Clingan, and Scoot Henderson - three top-10 draft picks, the foundation of the rebuild.
So, the Israeli forward finds himself in the same situation as Lauri Markkanen with the Jazz, Michael Porter Jr with the Nets, or even Josh Giddey with the Bulls, or Zach LaVine with the Kings: players who put up big numbers, look and feel like franchise players, but aren’t necessarily the ones you want to build around. Players you keep in hopes they’ll become a great second option, but who end up being paid (or about to be paid) a hefty - maybe excessive - salary.
In reality, when his contract is up in 2028, and if he keeps up this level of play, Deni Avdija could easily command $50 million a year or more, given how generous today’s NBA is with player salaries. But that would be a sign of failure, because it would mean Portland sees him as their leader, the one to take them to the top. To the question, "Can you build around Deni Avdija?", the answer is probably no. There are likely two years left to change our minds…