Match News and Current Form
Johannesburg’s Lions showed progress under Ivan van Rooyen when they made the finals of the URC for the first time in 2025/26, winning six games on the bounce between February and April to book a meeting with eventual champions Leinster. A 59-10 thrashing in the quarter-finals was a miserable way to go out, but they went out as SA Shield champions and the pride of being the best franchise in South Africa.
A fairly similar squad to the one that finished seventh in the URC has been selected by head coach Ivan van Rooyen, who also benefits from Springboks pair Quan Horn (fullback) and Boan Venter (prop) being released from the national team. Horn has been named as a starter for this match, whilst Venter is likely to make his Lions debut off the bench after joining from Edinburgh. All in all, it appears to be a pretty strong side captained by number eight Francke Horn.
This is the fourth and final tour match for the All Blacks and therefore the last on-field opportunity for a number of players to make their strongest case possible for the second, third and fourth games of the series. It’s almost certain that none of New Zealand’s starters for this game will start again on Saturday, but a couple of eye-catching performances could force a reshuffle of the second test bench, or see fringe players come into consideration later in the tour if it no longer goes to plan.
Rennie spoke at the weekend with just how impressed he has been with the turnaround of each matchday squad between games, but the 72-hour gap between games here has seen him choose an entirely different starting XV out of necessity. There are plenty of names who were once All Blacks regulars - such as fullback Beauden Barrett, match captain Patrick Tuipulotu, prop Samisoni Taukei’aho and returning centre Rieko Ioane. Even the bench sees one of the two recent callups, 34-year-old prop Ofa Tu’ungafasi, set to earn his 69th international cap and his first under Rennie.
Head-to-Head History
This is the first head-to-head to take place this century.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The Lions’ URC side scored the majority of their points before half-time in 12 of their last 18 games.
Three of the Lions’ last four URC matches finished under the main total points handicap.
Five of New Zealand’s seven games this year finished under the main total points handicap.
The second half was the highest scoring half in five of New Zealand’s seven matches this year.
The All Blacks are embarking upon their first full tour of South Africa since 1996! Marketed as the 'Greatest Rivalry' series, the winner will come out not only with the bragging rights but World Rugby's number one ranking. Keep up to date throughout August and September with news, previews and more.
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Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Lions centre Henco van Wyk led the team for both defenders beaten (47) and tries scored (eight) during the last URC, finishing just outside the competition’s top-ten on both counts. New Zealand’s Rieko Ioane used his URC experience to score tries in his tour games against the Bulls and Stormers and also scored in a regular season URC game against the Lions this year.
Lions are missing Morné van den Berg to Springboks duty. With this being the final tour game, New Zealand’s selections are all tactical. Ethan de Groot and Josh Lord would likely not have played this game even if they were not under concussion protocols from their weekend head knocks.
Click here for the latest matchday squads.
Betting Analysis
The recent trends of both sides point towards this producing under 71.5 total points.
Aaron Murphy has been with Flashscore since 2018 and, as the founding editor of the Australian newsdesk, has reported on-site at several major events in Melbourne including the Australian Open, State of Origin, A-League, NBL and international cricket. You can read his pieces here and contact him on X or LinkedIn.
