Toss-up in the Eredivisie: Opta predicts tight title race between Ajax and PSV

PSV's Noa Lang celebrates his winning goal against Feyenoord
PSV's Noa Lang celebrates his winning goal against FeyenoordČTK / imago sportfotodienst / IMAGO
The Dutch Eredivisie is nearing its conclusion, and with it, the incredibly tight title race between Ajax and PSV.

Two more rounds of games will be played in the Eredivisie, and both will be played simultaneously, starting with Wednesday's nine-game slate kicking off at 20:00 CET and ending with Sunday's nine-game slate at 14:30 CET.

The title race in the Eredivisie looked all but over when Ajax beat PSV 2-0 and extended their lead to nine points at the end of March, but a couple of disappointing results, including a 3-0 loss at home to NEC Nijmegen, have allowed PSV to close the gap to just one point.

Opta predicts

Ahead of Wednesday's games, Opta have calculated all possible outcomes of the Eredivisie season and predicted who will win this year's title.

After 32 games and with just one point separating Ajax and PSV, Opta have given the league leaders a 50.1% chance to win the Eredivisie. PSV, the reigning champions, have a 49.9% chance of winning their 26th title.

Opta's Eredivisie predictions based on the Opta Predictor
Opta's Eredivisie predictions based on the Opta PredictorX/@OptaJohan

Ajax are on a more than disappointing streak in the Eredivisie with three consecutive non-wins in the league. FC Utrecht beat Ajax 4-0 on April 20th, Sparta Rotterdam held them to a 1-1 draw in Amsterdam, and NEC Nijmegen booked their first-ever win in Amsterdam when they won 3-0 last Sunday.

PSV, meanwhile, recovered from a bad start to 2025 and have won seven of their last eight Eredivisie games, including the last five in a row. Their title challenge looked over when Feyenoord went up 2-0 within ten minutes in last Sunday's clash, but Noa Lang's dramatic 99th-minute winner completed a second-half comeback.

Opta's Eredivisie prediction through the 2024/25 season
Opta's Eredivisie prediction through the 2024/25 seasonX/@bartf

Ajax still hold a one-point lead and will play their last games away at FC Groningen and at home against FC Twente. Meanwhile, PSV host Heracles Almelo and will visit Sparta Rotterdam on the final day of the season.

Want to know more about the title permutations of Wednesday's and Sunday's games? Read about all possible scenarios in this article.

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The current standings at the top of the Eredivisie
The current standings at the top of the EredivisieFlashscore