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The stats behind a must win Premier League game for Tottenham Hotspur at Nottingham Forest

Tottenham's Pedro Porro is chased by Nottingham Forest's Morgan Gibbs-White
Tottenham's Pedro Porro is chased by Nottingham Forest's Morgan Gibbs-WhiteSOPA Images, SOPA Images Limited / Alamy / Profimedia

After one of the busiest transfer windows in their recent history, Tottenham Hotspur head to the City Ground on Saturday afternoon looking for their first points and first goals of the 2026/27 Premier League season.

Whilst Roberto De Zerbi won’t feel the pressure just yet, he will understand that another defeat will have the Spurs faithful questioning the logic of such a root-and-branch clear-out at the club, and whether so many new signings were truly necessary.

Forest have won just once at home in 12 league games

Those that travel to the Midlands to support the Lilywhites do so in the knowledge that Forest have won their last four league games against them, though the Tricky Trees have never won five in a row against Spurs.

What’s more, Oliver Glasner and his squad go into the game themselves each with an unenviable record of their own.

Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur - Recent head-to-head results
Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur - Recent head-to-head resultsFlashscore

The Austrian went 12 Premier League games unbeaten with Crystal Palace between April and September 2025, but since October, only Scott Parker (18) has lost more league matches than Glasner’s 16.

Forest have won just one of their last 12 home games in the league (D7 L4), too, and that came when beating Parker’s Burnley 4-1 in April.

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No goals this season and none in Spurs' last two visits to the City Ground

Though the hosts lost 1-0 to Leeds at the City Ground in the first game of this season, they haven’t lost their opening two home games in a top-flight campaign since 1924/25.

The North Londoners, thanks to their 3-0 loss at Brentford and their 2-0 reverse at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium against Newcastle, have the need for a goal that could now be said to be acute.

Spurs did win 2-0 in both 2022/23 and 2023/24 at the City Ground, but they won’t need reminding that they’ve lost - and without scoring - on their last two visits in 2024/25 (1-0) and 2025/26 (3-0).

Were they to lose again on Saturday, they’d equal the records from 1912/13, 1958/59, 1974/75 and 1979/80 when they lost each of their first three league games.

Contrasting styles

Not since November 2021 have they gone three matches without scoring, which will be music to the ears of supporters desperate to see their side find the net, and only once have they failed to score in their opening three of a league campaign, way back in 1974/75.

It’s clear that De Zerbi will still want his side playing the front foot attacking football for which he has become renowned, though Jan Paul van Hecke and Micky van de Ven have to be aware that Forest have played the most long passes in the Premier League this season (146), so any attempts from the centre-backs to get their team up the pitch could be met with a simple ball over the top for the likes of Morgan Gibbs-White to run onto.

Indeed, playing 20.9% of long passes is up 8.4% on last season, and is their highest ratio in the last five league campaigns, while Tottenham have made the second-fewest long passes (68), indicating the real contrast in styles.

Only Bruno Fernandes (22) has been involved in more Premier League goals in 2026 than Gibbs-White (17 – 13G, 4A), and the 13 goals that the latter has scored are the most in the top flight so far in the calendar year.

Solanke to start?

With Richarlison on the verge of a move to Turkish Super Lig side Trabzonspor, after his dream move back to Everton collapsed, the Brazilian’s place in the starting line-up could again be taken by Omar Marmoush; however, if De Zerbi is looking for a focal point up front, then Dominic Solanke could be given the nod.

Solanke has been involved in six goals in four league appearances against Forest at the City Ground (4G, 2A), and that includes the only hat-trick of his career to date (December 2023 for Bournemouth).

For the hosts, Glasner will undoubtedly be looking to Igor Jesus to continue his great start to the season in terms of the level of his work rate.

Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur - Win probability
Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur - Win probabilityFlashscore

That’s because, not only has the striker applied 135 high-intensity pressures to opponents in the league this season (only Hull City’s Oliver McBurnie (164) has more), but he ranks top for duels won (21) and aerial duels won (16) in the competition in 26/27.

In terms of injuries, Glasner can’t call upon the services of Ibrahim Sangare or Nicolo Savona, whilst De Zerbi will be without James Maddison, Dejan Kulusevski, Wilson Odobert and Xavi Simons.

Despite not training until later in the week (and also recently missing a fortnight’s training whilst at Man City), there’s a chance that Savio could still play some part.

Jason Pettigrove has been the features writer for Flashscore since 2025, utilising Opta data to form the basis of his articles. He has previously worked for high profile football clubs, news and media outlets, both in print and digital, and can usually be found watching FC Barcelona when time permits. You can read more of his pieces here.

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