Where Sunday's Premier League clash between Newcastle and Arsenal could be won or lost

Newcastle's Tino Livramento competes with Arsenal's William Saliba for the ball
Newcastle's Tino Livramento competes with Arsenal's William Saliba for the ballMichael Zemanek / Shutterstock Editorial / Profimedia

By the time Arsenal kick off against Newcastle at St. James' Park on Sunday, they could find themselves eight points behind Premier League leaders, Liverpool, if the Reds have triumphed in their Saturday evening fixture at Chelsea.

Even if Arne Slot's side were to lose their first game of the season, the Gunners would still be five points behind and looking for the win that would bring them within touching distance of the table-toppers.

Arteta highlighting the positives

Mikel Arteta spoke earlier in the week about how his phone blew up after his side snatched a draw against Man City last time out.

"When I watched the game back and saw the stats, I was surprised. It was impossible for me to predict such dominance from Arsenal for 96 minutes. It has never happened in 17 years of Pep as a manager," he said.

"I heard a lot of things using my phone, they could not believe what we did to Manchester City. People who are coaches, managers, CEOs, presidents."

That's all well and good, but the plain fact is that Arsenal were still unable to beat one of their major rivals for the league title, just as they were unable to get over the line at Anfield earlier in the season.

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St. James' Park isn't a happy hunting ground for Arsenal

Having not scored on the last three trips to Tyneside in all competitions, too, this isn't a fixture that has happy recent memories for the Spaniard.

In fact, the last time Arsenal left St. James' Park with a win came in May 2023, and that's also their only victory at the ground in the last five attempts.

In four games last season, only the final encounter - at the Emirates Stadium - was won by the North Londoners, Declan Rice grabbing the all-important goal.

Newcastle vs Arsenal - Recent head-to-head record
Newcastle vs Arsenal - Recent head-to-head recordFlashscore

With Piero Hincapie, Martin Odegaard, Gabriel Jesus, Noni Madueke and Kai Havertz all expected to be unavailable, the Gunners clearly have an uphill struggle ahead of them, though the return of Bukayo Saka will give them a much-needed boost.

The Magpies do have injury concerns of their own, with Jacob Ramsey, Yoane Wissa and Fabian Schar all sidelined.

Newcastle struggling to score goals

Notwithstanding the four goals scored in midweek against Bradford City, Newcastle have struggled to find the net this season, with Nick Woltemade still getting used to the cut and thrust of the English game.

Two goals for the Magpies against Liverpool meant nothing after the Reds won the match in the 10th minute of injury time, and they've only scored one more goal this season in the league - thanks to Woltemade - against bottom-of-the-table Wolves.

On three occasions, they've been shut out completely, including last time out against Bournemouth, and that has to be a worry for Eddie Howe.

Losing Alexander Isak was always going to upset the equilibrium in the dressing room. However, one man does not make a team, and Newcastle have other excellent attacking players that should be able to take up some slack where goalscoring duties are concerned.

Later stages could prove crucial for the Magpies

With the majority of Arsenal's league goals scored coming in the 15 minutes before half-time and the 15 minutes after, the hosts need to be on their guard if the Gunners go looking to finish the first-half strongly and come out firing in the second.

The Magpies have managed just two first-half goals themselves in the 2025/26 Premier League season to date, and it may well be that Howe won't see the best of his side until the latter stages of the game.

After providing an assist in the Man City game, Eberechi Eze's claims for a starting spot under Arteta are getting louder.

In Viktor Gyokeres, the visitors also have a player who is joint second for Premier League goals scored this season (three), and who has the best conversion rate (43%) of the top 10 players, which includes Mo Salah, Joao Pedro and Erling Haaland.

On current form, too, Arsenal's one loss in the last five league games is a much better return than Newcastle's one win in the last five.

Midfield battle likely to be key

The only issue that remains for the North Londoners in their quest to win the title is their ability to take games against certain teams by the scruff of the neck and provide intense opposition for the entire duration of the game.

That means players such as Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori need to consistently get forward and provide a supplementary attacking presence, whilst Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi take control of a midfield that's likely to get congested at times.

Arsenal's passing network vs Man City
Arsenal's passing network vs Man CityOpta by StatsPerform

If they're unable to do so again, there's a strong likelihood that Arsenal could be overrun by the attacking threat of Joelinton, Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali.

Ahead of another week of Champions League football, this Newcastle side also needs to start showing it is the real deal, and nothing would give them greater motivation in Europe than coming off the back of just their second home league win of the season.

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore

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