Bafana Bafana are now second in their pool on goal-difference behind Benin, but hold all the aces with an effectively two home games to come against Zimbabwe in Durban on Friday and Rwanda in Nelspruit next Tuesday.
The table looks like this: Benin (14 points, +4 goal-difference), South Africa (14, +3), Nigeria (11, +2), Rwanda (11, +0), Lesotho (9, -3) and Zimbabwe (4, -6).
Zimbabwe are the only side mathematically out of the running, but Lesotho are gone too for all intents and purposes.
The fact that up to five sides remain in the running is to the benefit of Bafana, as it means no dead rubbers going into the penultimate round of games. Every point will still be a scrap.
BENIN
Fixtures: Rwanda away (Oct 10), Nigeria away (Oct 14)
Benin have been pinned as Bafana’s biggest threat but have two incredibly tough away games in which the likelihood is they will get zero, one or maximum three points. This is a side who have not won (on the pitch) any of their last 17 fixtures on the road in all competitions, and taken two points from a possible 12 in their last four away World Cup qualifiers. They were awarded a 3-0 win against, ironically, Rwanda in an Africa Cup of Nations qualifier in 2023 after the home side played Kévin Muhire when he should have been suspended for two yellows. But the actual match finished 1-1. Benin have lost 16 of their 19 previous clashes with Nigeria (W1 D2) and never won away at the Super Eagles. It is hard to see where the four or six points they will likely need are going to come from.
Predicted final points tally: 15
SOUTH AFRICA
Fixtures: Zimbabwe away (Oct 10), Rwanda home (Oct 14)
Their game against Zimbabwe is listed as away but is actually to be played in Durban. The Warriors have been poor this campaign and coach Michael Nees will be using this fixture as a warm-up for the Africa Cup of Nations at the end of the year. Are they a terrible side? No. But at ‘home’, Bafana should have too much for them, as they showed in Bloemfontein last year with a 3-1 victory. Rwanda will be a tougher assignment in Mbombela and they have recent away wins in Nigeria and against Zimbabwe (played in Orlando), and also beat Bafana 2-0 on a terrible plastic pitch at home in this campaign. If they are still in the running come this game, they will be fired up. A draw might be a good result for Bafana.
Predicted final points tally: 18
NIGERIA
Fixtures: Lesotho away (Oct 10), Benin home (Oct 14)
The Super Eagles have been poor in this qualification campaign despite a squad packed with world-class talent. But they are still in the running and we can expect them to brush aside Lesotho at the Peter Mokaba Stadium in Polokwane, and probably give a boost to their goal-difference. That will leave them in with a chance whatever South Africa and Benin do, and they should be expected to beat their neighbours in their final home game as well. But it will likely all be too little, too late, with the damage already done earlier in their campaign.
Predicted final points tally: 17
RWANDA
Fixtures: Benin home (Oct 10), South Africa away (Oct 14)
As mentioned, Rwanda are tricky opponents but can also underwhelm. What will be annoying for Bafana is their 2-0 loss there in this campaign, which was Rwanda’s only World Cup qualifier home win in their last seven (D3 L3). Zimbabwe (0-0) and Lesotho (1-1) went there and got a point. But sniffing a chance to do something incredible, expect Rwanda to rise to the occasion against Benin and likely get at least a point. They may repeat that against South Africa in what will be a nervous evening in Nelspruit.
Predicted final points tally: 13
LESOTHO
Fixtures: Nigeria home (Oct 10), Zimbabwe home (Oct 13)
Two home games to finish, though both will be played in South Africa, they have had some good results in this campaign, not least draws in Nigeria (1-1) and Rwanda (1-1), and a 0-0 home draw with Benin. But the last round showed their frailties, a 3-0 loss to South Africa and 4-0 reversal against Benin. They could well lose both these games.
Predicted final points tally: 9
ZIMBABWE
Fixtures: South Africa home (Oct 10), Lesotho away (Oct 13)
They finish their campaign with two games in South Africa and thoughts are now very much on the Cup of Nations in Morocco starting in December. Will that mean experimentation in the team? We wait and see, but we have them down for a loss to South Africa in Durban and a win over Lesotho in Polokwane.
Predicted final points tally: 7